In the weeks before the Texas, Vermont, Ohio, and Rhode Island primaries on March 4th, many prominent Democrats pressured Sen. Hillary Clinton to concede to Sen. Barack Obama in the name of party unity. Some among the ranks even prodded Howard Dean, the Democratic Party Chairman whose screech still serves as an ominous reminder to the current presidential hopefuls, to urge Clinton to drop out. Dean didn’t go through with it, but it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. It was not stubbornness that sustained Hillary until March 4th. Nor was it a shared belief in Governor Huckabee’s miracles. It was a lesson she learned from the outcome of Super Tuesday. (Remember that primary? It was supposed to give Hillary an insurmountable delegate lead, but instead left her scrambling to assemble a post-Feb 5th strategy.) The lesson was this: In a Democratic primary where the poll numbers have been wrong since the Iowa caucus, a projected knockout victory could turn into a fight for survival; Or at the very least, a change in momentum. Despite Obama’s last minute surge in Texas and Ohio, Clinton’s loyal Hispanic voters held strong in Texas. Her union support in Ohio also remained securely grass-rooted to her base. After the polls had closed, Clinton came away with three of the four primaries. Since then, the Clinton campaign has adopted a “We’re just getting warmed up/we’ve turned a corner” theme. But her momentum may be coming too little and too late. Clinton’s victories, though decisive and emboldening, have only shortened Obama’s lead by twelve delegates. Talk about chipping away. Unless the Democratic Party allows Florida and Michigan a couple of do-overs, and a sizable number of super delegates swing her way, the odds are still against Clinton. So, if the race from here on out is as boring and predictable and Ralph Nader is, then Clinton is in trouble. But if this primary season has taught us anything (and by “us” I mean the candidates, pollsters, and voters alike) it is that knockout primaries never turn out as predicted. This is disheartening to Democratic voters who are beginning to anxiously fidget in front of their televisions, as headlines of Sen. John McCain’s victory flash simultaneously with the news of the Democratic race trudging on.
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